Global economic activity has proven more resilient than expected during 2026, despite significant geopolitical disruptions and elevated energy-market volatility. According to the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, global GDP growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026, rebounding to 3.4% in 2027. The global economy continues to benefit from exceptionally strong investment in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, data centres, semiconductors, and broader digital infrastructure. However, this resilience is becoming increasingly uneven across regions, as higher energy costs, inflationary pressures, fiscal constraints, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on many economies. The IMF highlights that energy-importing countries outside major technology supply chains face the most challenging outlook, while AI-related investment remains a key driver of growth and commodity demand.
Weather remains a critical factor for agricultural and commodity markets heading into 2027. NOAA’s latest ENSO assessment confirms that El Niño continues to strengthen and is expected to remain strong to very strong through at least the first quarter of 2027. Sea-surface temperature anomalies have exceeded +4.0°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and NOAA estimates an 83% probability of a historic El Niño event during October-December 2026, potentially making it one of the strongest events observed since modern records began in 1950.
Commodity markets continue to operate in an environment shaped by two powerful and opposing forces: geopolitical supply risks and technology-driven industrial demand. Ongoing Middle East tensions have maintained upward pressure on energy prices and logistics costs, while unprecedented investment in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, data centres, power infrastructure, and electrification continues to support demand for industrial metals, energy, chemicals, packaging materials, and agricultural inputs. As a result, volatility remainselevated across many commodity categories, with weather developments, energy markets, and geopolitical events expected to remain the primary drivers through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.