Q4 2025
The fourth quarter of 2025 showed contrasting dynamics across commodity markets. The non‑food commodity index declined slightly as global industrial demand remained weak, with chemicals, plastics, paper, and transport all posting declines. Metals were the major exception, rising sharply on higher energy costs, strong demand for transition metals, and record‑high gold prices driven by geopolitical uncertainty and monetary easing.
In contrast, the food commodity index fell after five consecutive quarterly increases, dropping 7.8% quarter‑on‑quarter as abundant harvests, strong milk output, and improved supply chains eased price pressures across most categories. Dairy experienced a sharp correction due to record milk production in major exporting regions, while grains and cereals—especially wheat—hit multi‑year lows amid record global harvests and rising stock levels. Â
Looking ahead, the 2026 outlook marks what the report frames as the “geopolitical era of commodities,” where conflicts, sanctions, and national‑security policies have become structural drivers of pricing rather than temporary shocks. Energy markets lean bearish with expectations of a global oil surplus and a divergence in natural gas pricing between the U.S. and Europe/Asia. Metals—particularly copper, aluminium, and gold—are poised for strength, supported by electrification, AI‑driven infrastructure, green‑energy investment, and persistent geopolitical risk. Agricultural markets remain well supplied, with wheat under significant downward pressure, while corn is expected to tighten in 2026/27. Overall, commodity markets are entering a period of structural fragmentation and regionalization, with opportunities concentrated in sectors linked to the energy transition and strategic materials.
